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Most of Botswana’s population live in rural areas where they are largely
dependent on agriculture as a source of food, employment and income (Panin and
Monkhei…).. Cattle production is 
dominant in Botswana’s agricultural sector and rural economy (Source..).Smallstock
such as goats and sheep are also important because they provide an alternative
opportunity to augment the incomes of smallholder farmers in the country (Panin, 2000).  At independence Botswana’s cattle population was about 1.3 million
(National Policy on Agriculture,1991). Currently the cattle population is
estimated to be   …..million (statistics
Botswana). Agriculture sector contributes about 2.2 percent to gross domestic
product (Statistics Botswana, 2011) and it employs about 26 percent of population       (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=BW).
How much was it contributing to GDP compared to now The government of Botswana has developed, revived and implemented
policies that aimed to boost livestock including smallstock productivity and
efficiency as well as to increase employment creation (Scoones et al., 2010). Some of these polices include (are): tribal grazing land policy of
1975, national policy on agricultural development of 1991, artificial insemination
and bull subsidy scheme, small stock development programme of 1998, services to
livestock owners in communal areas of 1980, livestock water development
programme and livestock management and infrastructure development of 2009.  The establishment of infrastructure such as the  Botswana Meat Commission (Nkombeledzi & Aikaeli 2013) in 1966 as a slaughtering and 
marketing channel for all of Botswana’s beef exports  favored the cattle industry. Cattle now have
market value unlike in the past when it was used for social/cultural purposes,
farmers are able to sell their cattle in exchange of money. Botswana also had a
country specific quota under the beef and veal protocol contained in the
Cotonou Agreement that expired in 2007. This quota allowed the country to
export specified quantities of boneless meat (fresh and frozen) to the European
Union (EU) at reduced import duties. The country has been able to remarkably
exports these products because it has comparative advantage in beef production
due to the availability of rangelands (Seleka, 2005). Botswana’s livestock sector is comprised of the traditional and
commercial production systems. (Source…) These systems are differentiated by
the type of land tenure, degree of market integration and the level of
technology adoption (Source…).  Most of the cattle are found in the Central region at an estimated
number of 545,785 herds whereas the Western region has the lowest (113,517)
population of cattle (Statistics Botswana, 2013).  The central region has
more cattle because it is sparsely populated hence there is more grazing land
in this area. In terms of goats and sheep Gaborone region has the largest
populations and the lowest populations are found in the Western region (Statistics Botswana, 2013).  Botswana’s livestock sector has economic potential if there are
advancements in production technologies. It is capable of increasing the supply
of beef to meet both the domestic and international market demands. It can also
contribute to the socio-ecomic goals of the country by increasing employment
especially amongst the youth and women, bring new livelihood opportunities,
improve food security and diversify the economy away from minerals.  1.1 Research
problem Botswana is a semi-arid country that is hot and dry for most of the
year. According to Batisani (2011) mild droughts are the most prevalent in Botswana followed by
moderate ones while the frequency of severe and very severe droughts is low. Batisani (2011) further asserts that most parts of the country are vulnerable to
hydrological droughts thus knowing this information is vital because it helps
in identifying areas at risk of water deficit, the likely impacts of such
deficit and hence the likely mitigation measures.  Notwithstanding this, livestock production is restrained by
recurring droughts and lack of surface water. For instance after severe
droughts in the 1980s, the government has continuously introduced various
drought-relief programs, such as grants for smallstock and other livestock (Simelton et al., 2011).  Rainfall
in Botswana is erratic, unpredictable and highly regional. The poor rains tend
to affect drinking water and the availability of grazing land for livestock.
The semi-arid condition also makes productivity of the natural resource base
very dynamic with the provision of ecosystem goods and services largely
determined by the extreme environmental conditions that affect water, soil and
landscape form (Williams, 2013). Livestock producers in Botswana are susceptible to risk because
they rely on rainfall for the survival of animals.  Risk in this context is defined as exposure
to adverse and extreme weather conditions, uncertainty of livestock input and
output prices and animal disease epidemics.  Diseases also pose as a threat to selling beef to EU market because
of the increasing international exports standards. Foot and mouth disease in
Botswana affects farmers because during the disease outbreak cattle are killed
leaving the farmer unemployed and without a source of income. Poor households
are highly vulnerability, they are more exposed because they have fewer assets that
they can use to shield themselves from these shocks.  The lack of ownership of resources by
traditional farmers also means that they cannot get financing, they need the
resources to act as security as such they run the farms at inefficient resources low BC1 input costs. It is important to know how households respond to
shocks to understand what households do when they encounter such situations. The remoteness of farms from major cities and towns also makes it
difficult for farmers to have access to markets and supplies. Households are
also at times affected by shocks such as livestock diseases, floods, and
drought that destroy the assets they own hence affecting them socially and
economically. A larger proportion of the rural household’s wealth is in cattle
which provide benefits such as employment, food, and income. Hence livestock
plays a crucial role in the lives of rural and urban populations of Botswana.
Livestock among smallholder farmers are used as a buffer against risk during
times of shocks. Understanding the nature and effects of production risk among
smallholder farmers and how to cope is important to improving livestock farming
and rural livelihoods. In order to determine and identify relevant improvements and
intervention measures to address policy priorities, it is necessary to include
risk to determine technical efficiency in order to understand how farmers are
affected. It is important for policy makers to know how livestock producers
respond to risk in order for them to be able to come up with different
diversification strategies for dealing with risk, to help farmers manage risk
better by reducing and mitigating risk and lessoning the impact of the shocks. This
will help to come up with cost effective strategies that can easily be
implemented by farmers.  To build on studies that measure technical efficiency of livestock
farmers in BotswanaBC2 , this paper seeks to address an area that has not been critically
examined which is the production risk associated with input use in the context
of efficiency. The study seeks to investigate technical efficiency of livestock
farmers using stochastic frontier with production risk to indicate the effects
of the input use on the output variance of livestock producers in Botswana. In this context, the
study seeks to find: 1.2 Research
questions
What shocks affect Botswana
livestock producers’ and how do they cope with these shocks?
What animal diseases affect
livestock producers?
Are climate factors important in
explaining production risk?
What are the determinants of
technical in/efficiency?
 1.3 Objectives
of the study The purpose of this research is to:
To identify the types of  shocks  and coping strategies that livestock
producers are exposed to
Assess the how climate variables
influence production risk of farmers
Analyze production efficiency of
farmers
   Impact of factors influencing risk and shocks on the technical/production activities of
livestock farmersTo explore coping strategies towards risks and
measure how the identified risks affect Botswana’s livestock competitivenessBC3  To capture the risks, both
subjective and objective measures will be used. For the former, this include
weather or climatic variables such as rainfall, flooding and extreme
temperatures. For the latter, the perceptions
of risk by livestock producers captured by through interviews will be usedBC4 . Variables on animal diseases prevalence will also be used to
capture the subjective measures. 1.4
Organization of the study The study is organized into six chapters. Following chapter one,
chapter two discusses literature review regarding risks faced by farmers in
agriculture and concepts related to agricultural risk, various types and
approaches of efficiencies are discussed. The chapter also looks at past
studies that have applied technical efficiency. Chapter three looks at the methodology
that is applied on the study. The Just-Pope framework and with other extensions
from the literature and their implementation on the stochastic frontier
approach are discussed. Chapter four discusses the data regarding the study
area and the description of the variables. Chapter five discusses the summary
results of variables that is, input and output variables, summary statistics of
the socioeconomic characteristics, the risks and shocks that affect farmers and
the regression results. Finally, chapter six presents the conclusion of the
study.

 BC1The farmers are not able to invest in new technology/buy new
machiney due to lack of finacing from the bamks hence they resort to
old/primitive technology.

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 BC2Do I need a reference for this?

 BC3Lets discuss if this is feasible

 BC4Not sure if I have it in the questionnaire. I will  have to deal away with this one because I am
not going to analayse it if its in the questionnaire

 

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